Chance favors the prepared mind. Ansel Adams
When an important life decision needs to be made we would prefer to know for sure which choice is best. With hindsight, we all would have known the right thing to do. But we don't know yet - and there is no guarantee that our choice will bring the results we hope for.
I am offering a systematic process based on high-stake decision-making as it used by professional organizations that manage high risks of failure or safety. I have adapted this process for use with individual decisions and assume you bring a clear goal to this process. (Alternatively, we can work on clarifying your goal.) In the course of five to ten sessions we will:
Hindsight bias:
The inclination to see events that have occured as more predictable than they in fact were before they took place
What is a good decision?
A good decision is clearly framed und based on valid facts, sound assessments of uncertainties, and correct reasoning.
A good decision balances uncertainty with the level of risk that is acceptable.
The Dilemma: Decision vs. outcome:
A good decision does not guarantee a good outcome: An unwanted outcome may occur as uncertainty means that we cannot know for sure or control what will happen.
Reversely, a poor decision can still lead to a positive outcome. We were lucky.
The challenge: Making the best of it
A good decision can't eliminate risk or uncertainty - or guarantee a positive outcome. All we can do is to assess the possible prospects in terms of what we hope to accomplish - and then make a choice and commit to action.